THE answer is I don’t know because I am writing this just as the great Copenhagen global warming gabfest is about to start – and you won’t read it until February 2010. So unless I’m some sort of futurist fore caster we won’t know.

And – my record in fore casting has not always been that good, which is why my share portfolio has a few lines where the current share price has $0.00, only remaining as a constant reminder of my poor judgement.

Anyway, back to the world of global warming, carbon credits and emissions trading et al. PM Kevin Rudd is determined that Australia is going to be one of the big players in this – he loves the world stage. And so far he has continued the good work done by predecessor John Howard in putting our name up in the lights, even if that has meant upsetting the leaders of the developing nations by Australia and a few others coming up with a plan for the world.

Sounds just like the old days in industrial relations in the building industry. The heavies of the day made the rules and rest had to follow – well, the heavies (Australian Federation of Construction Contractors) aren’t there any more. Maybe there’s a moral here, Prime Minister?

Meanwhile, the debate in Australia has changed big time with the PM and the very serious Penny Wong pipped at the post when their browbeating of those oppo site was gazumped with the unseating of Malcolm Turn bull and the installation of Tony Abbot as Opposition Leader. Now politics has some serious spice in the debate because what this change has created is the political freedom of many in the Opposition ranks and the general populace. Hitherto, to even doubt the Government line was to be branded not just a climate change sceptic but a flat earther!

I’m not sure where I stand. Having watched every lake, swamp and wetland in western Victoria dry up one after the other over the last 15 years I find it very hard to deny that there is climate change. It’s heartbreaking when you are a passionate trout flyfisher to read the words on the sign at Lake Wallace in Edenhope “regarded as one of the Wimmera’s finest fly fishing waters” and look out across a dry lake bed.

We have shot foxes in swamps where the water marks on the dead trees are 3m above our heads. So there would appear to be good argu ment for climate change. However, when these lakes and swamps dried up we dis covered that our forefathers in earlier droughts in the early 1900s and in the century before had fenced these same waterways.

Are humans causing the problem? On this question I am more sceptical. There can be no doubt we have made, and are making a mess of the planet. I did in one 18 month period recently, con tribute significantly to the emissions side of the ledger with the wholesale clearing and burning of 12,000 ha of native forest. But – did I square the ledger with the planting of the same area with a vibrant young carbon offsetting plantation? I don’t know – does anyone?

Go to places like Beijing, Jakarta, Bangkok to name just three and you will see plenty of evidence of green house gases being sent sky wards. For that matter drive into Melbourne from Ballarat when the inversion layer is having a bad day and see the smog (remember when it was called that?). Conversely spend hours driving across the country side as I do away from the cities and larger centres and see the clear air.

I don’t know! And I talk to an increasing number of people, particularly in the country who also don’t know but believe we should do whatever we can to lessen emissions. Just don’t send us broke in the pursuit of some science which may not be entirely right. Yet.